Hungarian Sustainable Energy Vision

October 2014: New Publication - Vision 2040 Hungary 2.0

The report „Vision 2040 Hungary 2.0 - Go Ahead This Way: A Framework of a Sustainable Energy System in Hungary" is a new edition of a possible renewable energy transition scenario. The scenario was developed by the Hungarian Environmental Education Network Association (EENA), in cooperation with the ELTE University Sustainable Energy Research Group along with several other institutes.
The scenario is a result of continuous work began in 2009 in cooperation with INFORSE-Europe. For this updated edition, GIS applications were used to calculate the potentials of the various renewable energy sources, and the analysis has been expanded with issues like the advantages of decentralized energy systems, sustainable transportation systems, the regulation background, and psychological aspects of the energy transition. The report is important and timely, as the Hungarian government is planning a new nuclear power plant to be built with a loan from Russia.

Published: October 2014, 200 pp.
See report at www.ktf.elte.hu/index.php/erre-van-elore-2-0/

March - April 2013: Vision 2040 Hungary 2.0

A new edition of the Sustainable Energy Vision called "Vision 2040 Hungary 2.0" is under preparation. The new version is based on the feedback received on the original publication "Hungary 1.0", which presented in numerous conferences and lectures. The original publication has version number 1.0, and consequently little corrections and perfections were edited in vision 1.1 and 1.2.

By March 2013, the vision's version 2.0 is under final consultations. The new edition contains new chapters on energy planning and energy transition written by new researchers who joined the project from different fields, such as mechanical and geothermal engineers, economists, psychologist, as well as the vice-president of the Hungarian Chamber of Architects. Simultaneously, the existed chapters were upgraded also. The expected publishing date is in April 2013 at the ELTE University's website.
Contact: The ELTE University Sustainable Energy Research Group and Environmental Education Network Association (EENA). Email to Béla Munkácsy, munkacsy@elte.hu .

Photo: The ELTE University Sustainable Energy Research Group

26 March, 2013: Gunnar Boye Olesen from INFORSE-Europe makes a lecture on sustainable energy vision tools at the ELTE University in Budapest, Hungary.
Read more: ELTE University Event's website and ELTE University News.

October 2011: New Publication

Title: "Vision 2040 Hungary 1.0 - Go Ahead This Way: A Framework of a Sustainable Energy System in Hungary"
155 pp. (in Hungarian).

Published by Environmental Education Network Association (EENA), Hungary. Editor: Béla Munkácsy.

Download it as pdf from the Hungarian Air Pollution web site:
"Erre van Elöre - Vision 2040 Hungary 1.0

September 2011: Poster of "Vision 2040, Hungary"
Download Poster as pdf file (184 kb) .

July 2011: Article on the Vision in Hungarian the Low Carbon Societies Network's Newsletter.
You can Download the Newsletter as pdf file and the article is on page #5.

Hungary, despite being a land locked country, is actually very rich in renewable energy. The renewable electricity production from 2001 till 2009 represents a five-fold increase in production. Today the majority of Hungary`s renewable energy comes form biomass which accounts for 90% and geothermal for 8.2%.

The Hungarian "Vision2050" is similar to the vision for EU. It is developed in cooperation with INFORSE-Europe and a an INFORSE-Europe member. The Hungarian INFORSE member is the Environmental Education Network Association (EENA), which also cooperated with a group of University students from the ELTE University. The work was coordinated by Gunnar Boye Olesen (INFORSE-Europe) and Béla Munkácsy (EENA and ELTE University).

The Group's work consisted of:
- Working with a complex excel sheet model, which gives the final scenario with graphical results.
- Estimating Hungary's renewable energy potential.
- Using data from the International Energy Agency by sectors in 1990, 2000, 2005.
- Estimating scenarios by 5 year from 2010 and 2050 based on the historical data, and the renewable energy and energy efficiency potential.

The Sustainable Energy Vision 2050 for Hungary shows that if the country uses its potential in the use of renewable energy sources and the energy efficiency, than the 100 % renewable energy scenario is possible. It is physically possible, but it needs change in regulatory frameworks and consumption attitudes.

4-Factor Energy Efficiency

In 2010, the primary energy supply of Hungary is around 1100 PJ. According to the Vision's scenario this value could be less than 400 PJ by 2050.

This is based on that Hungary can reduce the specific energy demand of household and service sector heating by 75% with respect to the given floor space (Factor 4), but we must admit that this is not the final value because of the presumably growing area of heated floor space. The specific heat and fuel demand of production sector will be also reduced by around 60%.
The specific electricity demand in all sectors, except for transport will be reduced to 45% of today’s value, while the electricity consumption will stagnate until 2050.

As for the personal transport the use of cars will be reduced to 65%, the value of air traffic is going to be only 70% of today’s. These reductions will be compensated by the growth of public transport sector, which is going to be more than doubled, meanwhile the efficiency will be reduced in all sectors, especially in case of cars and buses (to 25-30%) – thanks to the switch to electric engines. Goods transport, related to the value of 2000, will show a growing tendency in activity, except for pipelines, which will reduce to 5% due to the decreasing import of oil and gas. Efficiency will be doubled on this field, as well.

To achieve these energy efficiency, we took into consideration future changes of consumers’ attitude and an expected alteration of regulatory environment. These changes will happen as the price of the conventional energy will increase, but they are also needed to be supported by awareness campaigns, national and EU regulatory frameworks.

Energy Sources

In 2010, the supply of the fossil fuels (natural gas, oil and coal) and the nuclear power are dominant. Among renewables, biomass is the largest, but it still gives only around 3% of the total energy supply.

In 2050, according to the scenario of the Vision the most significant energy sources will be wind, sustainable biomass and biogas. Considering the potentials, the less important will be energy plantation by utilizing 7% of its potential because of related ecological problems. Meanwhile, in case of biogas we will take advantage of 88% of its potential. The main cause of the higher rate of biogas-usage is due to the possibility of widespread use, furthermore it might help solving some problems of waste management.

Primary Energy Supply in Hungary according to the Vision [PJ]

Energy Sources in 2050

Return to Vision2050                                     Return to INFORSE-Europe