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Will
the EU Goal of 12% Renewable Energy be Reached?
Notes by Gunnar Boye Olesen, INFORSE-Europe, September 2001.
EU
COMMISSION White Paper on Renewable Energies
COM(97)599, 26.11.97
The White paper's general goal is a doubling renewable energy sources
(RES) share in EU energy balance from 6% in 1995 to 12% in 2010
(share of final energy following EUROSTAT convention ). This is
the 12% goal.
The goal should be reached via an Action Plan. It includes:
- to provide market
opportunities without excessive financing burdens
- proposes priority
measures and actions to overcome obstacles and redress balance
The WHITE PAPER's -
ACTION PLAN, Main Elements:
- Internal market measures
- Reinforce Community policies
- Support measures
- Campaign for take off
- Improve co-ordination
with Member States
White Paper Goals - Status 2000.
An over view of current trends in the development of renewable energy
sources, compared with the trends necessary to reach the proposed goals
in the White Paper to rewach and overall doubling of renewable energy
in the energy mix from 1997 to 2010.
Wind: Goal of 40.000
MW (7.7 mtoe). This will be reached if development continues, NGO goal
of 60.000 MW possible.
PV: Goal of 650 MW.
This will be reached if development continues, higher goal possible
Biomass: Goal of 135
mtoe. The level was 45 mtoe in 1995 and the increase has been 1-2 mtoe
/year in the late 1990's. If this trends continues, biomass wil only supply
60-75 mtoe in 2010. To reach the goal is needed an increased development,
compared with development 1995-99. The oil price increase '98-99 has given
a new push for biomass that cannot be seen in statistics yet.
Solar thermal: Goal
of 100 mill m2(3,5 mtoe). The level was 10 mill.m2 (1998). The increase
is about 1 mill. m2/year, which gives only 22 mill. m2 in 2010. Increase
in development needed, compared with development 1995-99.
Passive solar: Proposal
of 35 mtoe. Development unquantified
Heat pumps: Goal of
1 mtoe from present level 0.4 mtoe. Goal is possible to reach.
Conclusion
The two key elements of a strategy to reach the White Paper (in addition
to ongoing activities) should be:
- to keep windpower growth
on track, and
- to help biomass growth
to develop, to make it possible to reach the biomass goal
Biomass Development Goals and Nneed
The biomass goal can be divided
in three main sectors:
- Biomass cogeneration of
heat and electricity. To grow from 3.6 to about 36 mtoe. The development
has been slowed by liberalisation of electricity market, but it is pushed
by the new renewable electricity directive, and by R&D programs.
There is a need for: Enforcement of directive, internalisation of external
costs in electricity market, market support
- Biomass for heating. To
grow from 38 to 75 mtoe. There was a slow growth in the 90's of about
1 mtoe/year, but the development is currently increasing because of
higher oil prices. Lack of EU support measures is a problem. There is
a need for support on national and EU level.
- Biofuels for transportation:
goal of 18 mtoe. EU directive upcoming with targets for biofuel use.
Rapid development needed to reach goal, but environmental concern
in the production is important (environmentally benign farming practices)
to win support from environmental NGOs for the proposal.
EU
5th RTD Programs: Clear Energy Policy Targets.
The EU has no general energy policy, but the energy policy targets of the
5th framework program for research and technical development (RTD) gives
a good indication of the generally accepted energy policy targets:
- Meeting Kyoto Objectives:
8% CO2 reduction between 2008 and 2012 compared to 1990 level
- Doubling the Share of
Renewable Energy Sources, from 6% to 12% of final energy (following
EUROSTAT convention )
- Improving Energy Efficiency,
Increase efficiency by 18% until 2010 compared to 1995
- Maintaining Security of
Supply
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