Basic information
|
Base-year emissions Mt CO2 |
2007 emissions Mt CO2 |
Change 2006– 2007 % |
Change 2007/base year % |
Kyoto target % |
Hungary |
99.2 |
75.9 |
-3.7 |
–34.2 |
–6.0 |
EU-15 |
4232.9 |
4052.0 |
–1.6 |
–5.0 |
–8.0 |
EU-27 |
5564.0 |
5045.1 |
–1.2 |
–9.3 |
No
target |
|
2007 GDP Growth % |
2008 GDP Growth % |
2009 GDP Growth (est.) % |
Gross Inland Energy Consumption Change Feb.2009/ Feb.2008 % |
Hungary |
1,2 |
0,6 |
-6,3 |
-8,0 |
Source: EEA Report No. 5/2007
By far, the biggest GHG-emitting sector was the Energy
sector, contributing 76% to Hungary’s total GHG emissions in 2006. Carbon
dioxide from fossil fuels is the largest item among greenhouse gas emissions.
Its contribution is 94.5% to sectoral emission, followed by CH4 with
4.1% and by N2O with 1.4%, in 2006. Among fuels, gases have the
highest proportion (47.0%), liquids have less, and solids have the lowest, but
the latter still represents 22.2% of the sectoral CO2 emissions. Due to the
changes in the fuel structure in the '90s, the most important source in the
base years, solid fuel, has been displaced by natural gas, decreasing the total
emissions. The most important subsector of the energy sector is “Energy
Industries”, which accounts for 32.3%, followed by “Other Sectors”, which
represents 28.1% of the total emissions in this sector. “Fugitive Emissions
from Fuels” plays only a small role in emissions of the sector with 3.6%. The
most dynamically increasing category is that of Transport, which has 4% higher
total emissions in 2006 compared to 2005.
In 2006, Agriculture was the second largest source of
greenhouse gas emissions in Hungary. It accounted for 10.7 percent of total
emissions. The contribution of agriculture to total emissions decreased over
the period 1985-2006 from 15.0% to its present share. Emissions from
Agriculture include CH4 and N2O gases. Most of the total
N2O emissions are generated in agriculture; it amounts to 68.74
percent of total N2O. The total emissions from agriculture decreased
over the period 1985-2006. The bulk of this decrease occurred in the years
between 1985 and 1995, during which the agricultural production underwent a
drastic decrease. The trend in emissions fluctuates slightly between 1996 and
2006.
The LULUCF sector was a net sink of carbon in most of
the years and a net source of emissions in 2000. This result is determined
largely by Forest Land, which is a major carbon sink. The Cropland living
biomass is usually a net sink of carbon but can be a net source of emissions in
some years due to reduction of orchard and vineyard areas. The soil disturbance
generates steadily decreasing removals of CO2, as a consequence of reduction of
agricultural land and afforestation of croplands. The complex dynamics of the
land use and land-use changes lead to fluctuating trends in the LULUCF sector.
In 2006, the net removal was 5.9 million tonnes.[1]
The development of the latest GHG
emissions in Hungary
GHG emissions have more or less stabilized since 1992,
with small fluctuations resulting from effects of? LULUCF as sinks. In 2006, total emission of greenhouse gases
in Hungary amounted to 78.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents,
excluding the LULUCF sector. With less than 8 tonnes, the Hungarian per-capita
emissions are below the European average. By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol,
Hungary committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 6%. Now, our emissions are
32% lower than in the base year (average of 1985-87). However, this significant
reduction is a consequence of the regime change in Hungary (1989-90) which
brought in its train radical decline in the output of the national
economy. Production decreased in almost
every economic sector including GHG-relevant energy, industry and agriculture.
Emissions decreased by 2% (-1.6 million tonnes) between 2005 and 2006. However,
there is no significant trend in the emissions of the last 10 years; they
fluctuate around 79 million tonnes. Nevertheless, the reduction between 2005
and 2006 is mainly due to processes in the energy sector (-1.3 million tonnes):
Emissions
from industrial processes decreased by 6% (-0.4 million tonnes). The growth in
the building industry sector could not offset emission reduction due to
decreased production and modernization in the chemical industry. By closing
down the aluminum production, the emissions in the metal industry category were
halved. The most important greenhouse gas by far is carbon dioxide, accounting
for 77% of total GHG emissions. The main source of CO2 emissions is
burning of fossil fuels for energy purposes, including transport. CO2 emissions
decreased by 30% since the middle of the 80’s. Methane represents 10% in the
GHG inventory. Methane is generated mainly in waste disposal sites and animal
farms, but the fugitive emissions of natural gas are also an important source.
CH4 emissions are 24% lower than in the base year. Nitrous oxide
contributes 12% to the total GHG emissions. Its main sources are the
agricultural soils and the chemical industry. The N2O emissions were
halved in the years of political and economic changes. The total emissions of
fluorinated gases amount to 1%. However, they are growing, due especially to
their applications in the cooling industry. [2]
Expectations of GDP growth and GHG
emission growth in the future?
GDP development and total energy consumption in
Hungary since 1985.
With the transport sector being the most intensively
growing sector, significant growth is not expected in emissions. As we can see
from the graph, GDP is growing at faster rate than total energy consumption.
With effective energy-efficiency measures in place (which we hope to see
introduced in the coming years) the latter trend can be turned round and GDP
growth can be decoupled from energy consumption (which will result in declining
emissions). Hungary is launching GIS late in 2008 that will have a positive
effect on efficiency investments and projects. This could result in significant
emission reduction in the affected sectors. Unfortunately, road transportation
has become the preferred transportation mode and will continue to be so in the
next couple of years thanks to the unbalanced development policies.
Public attitude
The Hungarian public is quite concerned about CC even
compared to the European average. This is mainly thanks to some extreme weather
events that were reported and interpreted as results of climate change. Hungary
is a traditionally agricultural country, and because of that, adaptation is
considered as a critical issue in this field.
A domestic public opinion survey commissioned by 3 Hungarian
environmental NGOs was completed in 2008. The survey brought very similar
results to the Eurobarometer report. Most interesting results of this survey
are, that however concerned people are about climate change, they are not aware
of its indirect and longer-term impacts (when people had to select possible
negative impacts of climate change from a list, there was only 1 indirect
impact in the first 6 and the last 3 were increasing social differences, wars
and conflicts, climate refugees).[3]
The public discussion and debates are mostly about extreme weather conditions
and adaptation to those, mainly floods, droughts, summer heat waves and heavy
storms. People do not link climate change to human impact and their everyday
activities. There is still some debate about man-induced CC or not but it is
minor; the causes (greenhouse gas emission) are mainly accepted. The hottest debate is still about growing
energy prices. Unfortunately energy policy and climate policy are not linked
and harmonized to each other; neither in the political field, nor in the public
eye. Without appropriate energy policy, public attention focuses on energy
prices, energy supply, security, and allocation of state support and
subventions for energy consumption. The system is currently very chaotic and
controversial.
The public is mainly concerned about weather impacts.
UN policies are not really followed. Kyoto protocol is known, but details are
not known – ways to reach Kyoto targets are not clear. Thanks to the growing
media attention in the past couple of years, these subjects are in the
mainstream news during related events and the trends are promising. The 2007
IPCC Nobel Prize (Hungarian scientists contributing) and the Budapest seminar
got quite a big media attention, but the detailed findings of the IPCC 4AR are
not known.
The explanation is there in the media, but on a very
superficial level. There is a theoretical link, but people do not connect this
theory to their daily choices and lifestyles. The feeling is that humans are
rather victims of climate change than causes of it.
The earlier mentioned public opinion survey[4]
shows the impacts of climate change will be according to the public (in order
of importance): desertification/droughts, disappearing seasonality in weather,
natural disasters, more frequent extreme weather events, melting of icecaps and
snow – so people all see the negative consequences. There are practically no
such things as views that climate change will be beneficial for Hungary, or
even if such theories exist, they are marginal, not visible to the general
public. According to another survey[5],
only 1 % thinks that climate change will not have any negative impacts.
Kyoto Protocol is known, and people connect the term
with climate protection, but the public does not have much information or
interest in concrete targets and details. The communication of the government
has been quite positive about Kyoto and Hungary doing well on achieving Kyoto
targets, even overachieving. This creates a sense of passivity.
Most people easily take up some no-cost or low-cost
measures (like efficient light bulbs to cut their energy consumption,
separating waste, using public transport). These are the most popular measures,
since they are economically beneficial as well. As the initial investment
rises, the willingness to sacrifice reduces.
There is not much public debate on this subject.
There have been many news reports about melting ice
caps, hurricanes, and tornadoes as possible effects of climate change. The IPCC
Budapest conference was another highlight. Bali conference outcomes were
briefly analysed. More storms than average raised public attention too. Climate
change and weather have become mainstream subjects in the recent period: e.g. there was 7.5 times more CC-related news
in the electronic media in the beginning of 2007 than 1 year earlier. The
online media is a huge contributor to the discussion, with 2699 articles about
climate change in the first 6 months of 2007[6].
Yes, the Hungarian Climate Coalition (network of Env.
NGOs) was very active in forming the National Climate Change Strategy that was unanimously
accepted by the Parliament in March 2008. NGOs conducted the strategic
environmental assessment (SEA) of the program, as well as contributed with
input, and also presented media pressure (10 points for climate). Minor issues
are also discussed, e.g. in 2008 the NGOs had huge response when the government
attempted to move ETS issues from Ministry of Environment and Water (MoE) to
Ministry of Finance. There were at least 3-4 climate campaigns (“climate
tours”) of different NGOs around Hungary involving local people and children,
including demonstrations of tips and tricks on reduction measures and the
introduction of renewables. Practically all Env. NGOs have some climate-related
activities. The MoE has raised the issue as priority in project calls. The
energy advisory centers and environmental advisory groups that are operated by
Env. NGOs are frequently responding to questions and requests from citizens
related to renewable energies, energy-saving and efficiency measures. Currently
the planning process of the national climate-change program is going forward
with civil participation.
Yes, and the references are there in policy documents
and lobby papers, as well as in the general communication of NGOs.
NGOs mostly promote energy-efficiency measures and
renewables. Some specific NGOs push for appropriate Energy Strategy for
Hungary. Public campaigns focus on demonstration of mitigation and adaptation
hints and tips and renewable energy sources.
Main NGOs active on the field:
http://energiaklub.hu/en/about_us/
http://www.greenpeace.hu/index.php?m=kampany&alm=3&sub=4&lap=166&id=166
http://mtvsz.hu/programok_list_en.php?which=12
http://wwf.hu/index.php?p=vedelem&sub=44
http://www.levego.hu/index.php?event=Language
The media are mostly interested in extremes such as
natural disasters, within Hungary or outside. There is very little
understanding of technical issues like EU ETS or effort-sharing. There were
numerous articles from the industry’s point of view on emission-trading and
auctioning, drawing the attention of a relatively small group of
interested/affected public.
Some specific media (mostly online economic or
science-oriented portals) have offered information about the EU process:
minimal reporting on UN post-Kyoto talks without high level of details. Some
financial issues, e.g., Hungary selling AAUs to Belgium, got into online media.
Some journalists understand the process, but
generally, the interest and knowledge is low regarding the details and
technical issues. They could be educated.
There is a scientific study project on adaptation
supported by the government: the new VAHAVA report (Changes-Impacts-Answers).
It is being drafted (to be ready in 2010) by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences,
and will concentrate mainly on adaptation. Similarly to the first report, we
can expect some media response on that. The previous results are available on
the website in Hungarian language. http://www.vahava.hu/
Interested people can receive some scientific
information from here, but so far the public is not well informed. One main adaptation measure likely to
interest the public would be, e.g., installing air conditioning systems against
summer heat waves.
ENGO websites: www.energiaklub.hu
, www.wwf.hu , http://www.vedegylet.hu/
Official: www.klima.kvvm.hu
, www.eh.gov.hu
Scientific: www.met.hu
, www.metnet.hu , www.vahava.hu
Media: www.greenfo.hu
, www.zoldtech.hu , www.origo.hu/tudomany , http://index.hu/tudomany/
Yes, all the biggest newspapers and online magazines
covered the outcomes, mainly on the occasion of the Nobel Prize and the IPCC
holding its 28th session in Budapest. Online media was practically
full of the news about this event (approx. 1440 hits in Google for “ippc,
Budapest” in Hungarian language).
Policies and measures
There is Post-Kyoto strategy linked to EU policy
(burden-sharing) in the National CC Strategy but concrete goals are missing.
There has been no public discussion. A
government/NGO information meeting was held in June 2008; there, the subject
was raised briefly. Post-2012 issues have a very low profile in the media right
now. Main discussion is about allocation of quotas (auctioning or not) after
2013.
Officially Hungary is determined to stick to the
proposal, and if necessary, to delay the process till spring 2009 to have
satisfactory agreement on ES (http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.974026).
Compromise agreement could mean taking into
consideration “early action” – i.e., hot-air reserve – of new MS countries, in
some form of financial assistance towards new MSs to help to achieve
reductions, but there is not yet an official mandate for any specific
compromise solution.
A position has emerged within the industrial sector
stating that GHG reduction targets will hinder economic development, but these
arguments are not supported by studies or exact data.
The NGOs (mainly the Hungarian Climate Coalition) call
for stronger European commitment, meaning
a domestic reduction target of at least 30% by 2020 compared to 2005
levels[7].
NGOs in general support strict targets, with no country allowed higher
emissions than its Kyoto target. According to EK estimations Hungary could
reach at least 35% reduction compared to 2005 by means of increased efficiency
and optimal use of renewable energy sources.
The media and public do not take sides in this
question. So far, the EU targets seem to
be not well taken up, probably due to a lack of understanding of the issue.
ETS
Of course there has been opposition from industry at the
beginning of the first and second periods, but fundamentally by now both the
government and industries accept ETS as an effective way to reduce emissions.
Industry respects ETS as a necessary burden; however, it will be built into the
price of energy and pushed upon consumers.
Around 135 million EUR was “donated” to companies
during the first 2 years of EU-ETS phase 1. The biggest winners were
electricity-producing companies, with ca. 50 million EUR during 2 years[8].
We can name these companies, but the general public and the media are not
interested in this subject as it is not well understood. There is also a
feeling that certain lobby groups are against wider publicity.
Yes, an EK study on alternative energy scenarios for
Hungary has concluded that the country could reach at least 35% reduction
compared to 2005 by means of increased efficiency and optimal use of renewable
energy sources.
The government is determined to comply with European and
international agreements. However, the Ministry of Environment and Water, which
is responsible for this process, is historically not the strongest Ministry of
our country. On the other hand, it is positive that Hungary has earmarked funds
to invest in emission-reduction measures (as defined in the “Kyoto Act”). Our
country also introduced the Green Investment Scheme. These two sources could
bring altogether approx. 54 million EUR for climate investments.
Recent studies[9]
have shown that auctioning will not have great impact on prices, partly because
the majority of the companies have included the cost of allowances in the price
of energy already. Energy pricing and subventions have been a hot issue in
Hungary and the acceptance of any further increase is questionable. The public
is ready to make reductions in order to save energy but the current support
system for energy-efficiency measures (project application system and
accounting) makes it almost impossible to apply for support. Another factor is
that the utility billing system is constructed in a way (yearly measurement)
that it is difficult to follow real consumption of households. The government
has started to explore possibilities and potentials on energy efficiency and
RES as a first step. With an appropriate harmonized strategy, these targets
seem achievable.
The Ministry of Environment and Water is the body
mainly responsible for GHG emission reductions and for informing the
public. They have conducted a special
media campaign and a climate tour; they also issued a short bulletin for the
general public on this issue. The impact has been minimal, since the campaign
did not mobilize those that otherwise would have been not interested. The
Ministry maintains a climate website and a Hungarian version of the EU’s
“Change” campaign http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/campaign/index_hu.htm
as well as its own campaign website: http://www.elhetokornyezet.hu/problema.html.
In the media, Environment Ministers have linked
climate change to the transport issue, e.g., promoting cycling. Unfortunately,
available support schemes are not at all advertised and the system is very
user-unfriendly, making it difficult for the public to apply.
There are two kinds of investment subsidies: one for
the public, one for the business sector. These are combined with some loans on
preferential terms to support investments. Unfortunately, the existing support
measures are not well communicated, i.e., without any information
campaign. The public is not informed
about the sources and ways to apply to them. Feed-in tariffs are in place
(26,46 HUF/kW) for electricity, but the amount is only sufficient for support
of biomass and wind energy, it is much too low to support hydro or solar energy
sources. There is the National Energy Savings Program (operated by the Ministry
of Transport, Telecommunication and Energy) http://www.khem.gov.hu/feladataink/energetika/ener_paly.
The business sector can seek funding from the Environment
and Energy Operational Program (EEOP, or KEOP in Hungarian) of the New Hungary
Development Plan (http://www.nfu.hu/?lang=en).
The National Rural Development Plan supports the
production, processing and own usage of biomass (e.g., for heating of
greenhouses).
Efficiency
Following the collapse of heavy industry, since the 1990’s,
the energy intensity of the country has improved. The Szechenyi program in the
year 2000 was about the first governmental program to support residential
energy-efficiency investments such as renovation of buildings, replacement of
windows, and insulation. In the past few years, mainly thanks to European
regulations and harmonization of EU and HU legislation, certain regulations and
support schemes were developed in the EE field. Most recently, the National
Energy Efficiency Action plan was adopted[10].
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive has been transformed into
Hungarian legislation[11].
We expect to follow the EU’s goals on energy efficiency whenever the new
regulations will come out (probably after adoption of the EU’s Climate and
Energy package). Unfortunately, the government does not set an example in this
field: practically no efficiency improvement measures have been implemented in
the governmental, institutional or municipal sectors. The real political will
is not the main driving force behind the introduction of these policies; the
triggers come mostly from outside (EU requirements). On the other hand, these
populist measures (increased governmental support for the public) are good
opportunities for politicians. Therefore, certain measures do not fit in a
comprehensive strategy or system. As well, the relevant institutions and their
roles are very scattered; energy and efficiency are allocated to various
ministries and institutions, and the support measures are not easy to follow
either. On the other hand, Hungary (similarly to other CEE countries) has great
potential for energy savings. Within this, the biggest potential belongs to the
residential sector[12],
which is responsible for approx. 30% of annual national CO2 emissions.
As a member of the European Union, Hungary has the
obligation to meet the binding targets set for the production of electricity
from renewable energy sources (3,6% by 2010) and the share of biofuels within
its fuel consumption (5,75% by 2010). With the new Renewable Energy Directive,
new targets will apply, both for renewable energy in transport and for the
share of renewables within the final energy consumption (13% in the case of
Hungary). Driven by these binding targets, the Hungarian government prepared
the legal environment for the growth of renewables and imposed diverse support
mechanisms to stimulate their spreading. In sectors where no binding targets
apply, no support mechanisms have been implemented (e.g., heat production from
renewable energy sources). Hungary has great potential to produce energy from
diverse types of renewable energy (e.g., the geothermal potential is above
average, the number of sun hours is higher than in Germany or Austria with
impressive solar energy performances, and due to the agriculture, significant
amounts of waste products are available for biomass utilization). Nevertheless,
the current legal conditions are not favorable enough to achieve significant
changes in renewable-energy production. The Hungarian Renewable Energy Strategy
projects in its policy scenario a renewable energy share of 15% by 2020. To
achieve this, steady conditions have
to be guaranteed for investors. Currently, regulations change very
quickly. The time frame of granting
feed-in tariffs for green electricity producers is determined individually for
each investment and the feed-in tariffs are not differentiated according to
technologies, which proves attractive only for solid biomass utilization and
wind energy production. Other very promising technologies such as geothermal
heating and cooling, biogas or biomethane production, and photovoltaic find it
difficult to enter the market. There is a need for political commitment to the
introduction of? renewable energies. Should the predictions of the Policy
Scenario of the Renewable Energy Strategy apply, the consumption of energy from
renewable energy sources will grow faster than that of fossil fuels. Should the
BAU Scenario apply, then the increase in the use of fossil fuels will exceed
that of renewable energy sources.
Company |
Where |
Fuel |
Capacity (MW) |
In operation from |
Further plans |
Kárpát Energo |
Vásárosnamény |
gas |
230 |
|
|
E.On |
Gönyű |
gas |
400 |
2010 |
plus 400 MW |
EMFESZ Ltd.. |
É-K-Magyarország |
gas |
800 |
2011 |
plus 1600 MW |
Mátrai Erőmű Zrt |
Visonta |
lignite |
376 |
2011 |
|
Mátrai Erőmű Zrt. |
Visonta |
lignite |
440 |
2012 |
|
MOL + Cez |
Százhalombatta |
gas |
800 |
? |
? |
Összesen |
|
|
3046 |
|
|
A CCS pilot project is being considered in case of Mátra
PP extension at Visonta (lignite fuel) – the investment to be realized from
private money. Currently, the Hungarian government does not support either
pilot projects or CCS research. CCS is believed by the MOL Hungarian Oil
Company to present a good opportunity to store CO2 while practicing enhanced
oil recovery.. MOL is also preparing to provide infrastructure for transport
and storage, i.e., to store CO2 that will be captured elsewhere. There are
several surveillance projects (by ELGI – Eötvös Loránt Geophysical Institute)
to determine potential storage sites. There is no clear consensus between the
government and experts what should be meant by “clean coal” technology. Mostly
they refer to highly efficient combined combustion power plants and / or CCS.
“Clean coal” technology (IGCC) is proposed by the mining sector, e.g., in the
Matra region, where local coal mines could be re-opened. But such technologies
are not yet in operation in Hungary. CHPs are also considered “cleaner” because
of lower CO2 emissions and higher efficiency.
Hungary has one nuclear power plant near the city of
Paks (see http://www.atomeromu.hu/index-e.htm),
which contributes to 33-34% of the country’s gross electricity consumption.
The phase-out of this NPP is scheduled for 2012-2017
(all 4 units, gradually). However, there are plans to extend the lifespan of
the reactor by 20 years until 2032-37. These plans are likely to be endorsed by
the government and there is no significant public opposition towards them. A
limiting factor could be the mechanical status of the units. According to
previous communication from the Ministry of Transport, Telecommunication and
Energy, the Hungarian government is in favor of including nuclear energy as
part of the energy mix and there is a good chance that the Paks NPP will remain
a predominant factor in the Hungarian electricity generation market. The most frequently used argument is that of
energy security (reducing dependence on imported gas), cheap production, and
low emissions. There are also some preliminary plans to expand the Paks NPP but
these plans have no concrete deadline for endorsement.
Other information
The main responsible governmental body is the Ministry
of Environment and Water - www.kvvm.hu
Ministry of Transport, Telecommunication and Energy - http://www.khem.gov.hu/en
Ministry of National Development and Economy - http://nfgm.gov.hu/en
Hungarian Energy Office - www.eh.gov.hu/home/html/index.asp?msid=1&sid=0&HKL=1&lng=2
Hungarian Academy of Science - www.mta.hu
Hungarian Meteorological Service - www.omsz.hu
www.klima.kvvm.hu
, www.eh.gov.hu , www.mavir.hu , http://www.khem.gov.hu
, www.zoldtech.hu
[1] National Inventory Report for
1985-2006 Hungary, April 2008, Hungarian Meteorological Service.
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Division
[2] National Inventory Report for 1985-2006
Hungary, April 2008, Hungarian Meteorological Service,
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Division
[3]
http://wwf.hu/index.php?p=hirek&sub=sajto&ev=2008&id=229
[4]
http://wwf.hu/index.php?p=hirek&sub=sajto&ev=2008&id=229
[5] Social Climate Report 1., by TÁRKI and Image
Factory, August 2007.
[6] From: Social
Climate Report 1., by TÁRKI and Image Factory, August 2007.
[7] http://www.energiaklub.hu/en/
[8] from „A 2005 és a 2006-os európai és magyar EU-ETS
kibocsátási adatok elemzése” (Analysis of 2005-2006 EU-ETS emission allocations
in
[9] The impact of auctioning on European wholesale
electricity prices post-2012 by New Carbon Finance,
[10]
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/demand/legislation/doc/neeap/hungary_en.pdf
[11]
http://www.lakcimke.hu/dl/176_per_2008_korm.rend.doc
[12]
http://klima.kvvm.hu/documents/95/Klimapolitika_tanulmany.pdf