Basic information - Greenhouse
gas emissions in CO2 equivalents (excl. LULUCF) and Kyoto Protocol targets for
2008–12.
|
|
Base-year emissions Mt CO2 |
2007 emissions Mt CO2 |
Change 2006– 2007 % |
Change 2007/base year % |
Kyoto target % |
|
Bulgaria |
132.6 (1988) |
75.5 |
5.9 |
–43.0 |
–8.0 |
|
EU-15 |
4232.9 |
4052.0 |
–1.6 |
–5.0 |
–8.0 |
|
EU-27 |
5564.0 |
5045.1 |
–1.2 |
–9.3 |
No target |
|
|
2007 GDP Growth % |
2008 GDP Growth % |
2009 GDP Growth (est.) % |
Gross Inland Energy Consumption Change Feb.2009/ Feb.2008 % |
|
Bulgaria |
6,2 |
6,0 |
-1,6 |
-5,9 |
During the period from 2007 to 2012, Bulgaria’s
greenhouse-gas emissions are expected to increase by 27.5% (from 80135.78 Gg in 2007 to 103826.91 Gg, as
compared with the maximum permitted under the Kyoto Protocol, 127283 Gg), with gross electricity consumption in the country
increasing on average by 2.9% per year.
These predictions are contained in a consultancy document for the Bulgarian
National Allocation Plan for greenhouse-gas emission allowances covering 2007
and the period from 2008 to 2012.
The budget shows that the roles of renewable-energy source
development and of energy efficiency are underestimated. There is a lack of incentives for funding
such projects.
The government in Bulgaria, along with most representatives
of the Bulgarian business sector (e.g. the Bulgarian Chamber of Trade as well
as the Confederation of Employers and Industrialists in Bulgaria), maintains
that increased greenhouse-gas emissions are inevitable if economic growth is to
be achieved. Several unfavorable trends in connection with greenhouse-gas
emissions are expected in the next few years: the decommissioning of nuclear
capacity coincides with accelerated industrial growth as a whole;
carbon-intensive industrial sectors such as energy, metallurgy, construction,
etc., are expected to grow at a higher rate than the average for the economy.
The relatively low income levels among the population mean that gas-supply
network extensions and measures to increase household energy efficiency still
have not been applied widely. If the
predicted growth in greenhouse-gas emissions and in the use of fossil fuels
takes place as the government plans, in view of the continuing global energy
crisis arising from fossil fuel depletion, we believe that Bulgarian industry
could be in serious difficulties after 2012 and will need to purchase large
amounts of greenhouse-gas emissions allowances.
Public attitudes
towards Climate Change (CC)
No surveys have been carried out at the national level on
the degree of concern about climate-change issues in Bulgarian society.
Objective information about climate change tends not to reach the public due to
lack of interest in the topic among the national media and the fact that the
problem is underestimated on a political level. In general, the popular public
view is that climate change is something happening far away from Bulgaria and
nothing depends on Bulgarians, but that the EU is forcing steps to be taken at
Bulgaria’s expense. The efforts of the non-governmental sector are insufficient
to ensure that objective information reaches the general public in Bulgaria.
Thanks to the activities of non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
working in the area of climate change and of a small number of committed
journalists, a fairly clear picture has now been presented to the public that
there is no further serious controversy about the existence of anthropogenic
climate change. A significant factor in
contributing to this picture was the latest IPCC report, which we managed to
disseminate and promote among a broad range of stakeholders. Most of the Bulgarian public, however, are
mainly concerned about climate change only to the extent that they can see
unseasonable weather and unprecedented flooding every year in Bulgaria.
Most of the Bulgarian public now believes that extreme
weather events result from anthropogenic climate change. Few now believe that this is merely due to
natural cycles. There is no sociological
information in Bulgaria about how much of the population believes that climate
change is beneficial, but such a view is almost absent in the Bulgarian media
and in Bulgarian society. The Kyoto protocol is not familiar to Bulgarians, the
main reason being the collapse of the Bulgarian socialist planned economy,
which meant that Bulgaria could fulfil Kyoto
requirements in relation to the base year without making any effort, since the
collapse occurred after the base year. Accordingly,
Bulgaria's greenhouse-gas emissions dropped by 56%, far above the 8% required
by Kyoto.
The Bulgarian government has been very slow in making
efforts to clarify issues of energy efficiency, renewable energy sources and
new technologies. Politicians and
representatives of the business sector still prefer to support the traditional
wasteful consumer economy. This enables
them to parasitise public procurements and the funds
available in the energy sector. Ever
since the electricity distribution companies were privatised,
the higher price of energy has been presented to the Bulgarian public as an
attempt by unscrupulous foreign company owners to defraud the Bulgarian public.
In combination with continuous attempts by the government and the energy lobby
to introduce new fossil-fuel energy capacity in order to turn Bulgaria into the
"energy centre of the Balkans", this marketing strategy has left the
population unwilling to pay for more expensive energy, even should such power
be cleaner.
Opportunities exist for the rapid implementation of measures
such as fitting sulphur-scrubbers to large
thermoelectric power stations and accelerating power-plant rehabilitation. The
government is making considerable efforts to ensure the start of construction
of the new Belene nuclear power plant as a
fundamental measure to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The development of
investments in the production of renewable energy and in energy efficiency is
currently very slow. As a whole, the position of the USA in rejecting the Kyoto
protocol is well known in Bulgaria, but the arguments used by the US
administration for doing so are less widely known. Of course most people with an interest in the
matter condemn this US policy; a small number views these Bush-administration
policies as protection
of the US national interest.
One of the main issues facing Bulgaria in 2008 is the matter
of emissions trading. A case brought by
the Bulgarian government against the European Commission and the Court of the
European Community in Luxembourg seeks a full repeal of the EC decision of 26th
October 2007 to reduce the emissions allowances allocated in the National
Allocation Plans for 2007 and for the period from 2008 to 2012. Bulgaria supports the Hungarian position
calling for an equal reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 18% for each EU
member state instead of the differentiated approach put forward by the European
Commission. Bulgaria also supports the
exclusion of the metallurgy and energy sectors from the regulations governing
the allocation of greenhouse-gas emissions allowances for the period after
2012.
NGO activities
Non-governmental organisations in
Bulgaria are visibly active on climate change issues, but more needs to be
done, as most of them are involved with climate change issues mainly in
connection with their work on energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.
Representatives of non-governmental organisations are
now always present when climate-change issues are discussed on the media. NGOs are also invited with increasing
frequency to debates on climate change that are organised
by the government. Non-governmental organisations in
Bulgaria have made efforts to act as partners with the government in connection
with the drafting of a new Renewable Energy Sources Act. NGOs also take part as observers in the
Parliamentary Energy Commission, where they have managed to submit 6 proposals,
of which two were adopted. As a whole, however, non-governmental organisations have very little influence in the relevant policy-making
process. This is mainly due to the style
of governance and decision-making adopted by politicians in Bulgaria, which
tends to be opaque and lacks adequate consultation mechanisms. The Bulgarian government’s obvious efforts to
develop a fossil-fuel-based economy represent a further obstacle excluding the
adequate participation of environmental NGOs.
Together with the Stern review, the IPCC 4th
Report is an extremely important source of information which the
non-governmental sector uses in discussions, seminars, press conferences and
media interviews. NGOs in Bulgaria mainly work in the area of renewable energy
sources and energy efficiency. Their activities include public information
campaigns; practical training seminars on energy efficiency and on fitting
solar panels for hot water supplies; and advocacy to encourage the government
to provide more successful incentives for households to improve energy
efficiency by means of tax relief. Some NGOs give presentations in schools. Some have published a climate-change and
energy-efficiency handbook for teachers. For example, the NGO “Za Zemjata” participates in a
school education project on energy efficiency (SPARE). In order to increase their political
influence, NGOs are meeting ever more frequently with politicians and members
of Parliament.
Media coverage of
CC
The Bulgarian media take a sporadic interest in
climate-change issues, for instance in connection with the International Day of
Action on Climate Change. Media interest
was also provoked by the Nobel Prize awarded to Al Gore and the IPCC team and
by EU summit meetings on climate change.
The media are most active when there are disputes between the Bulgarian
government and the European Commission arising from Bulgaria’s non-implementation
of measures to combat climate change. In the course of the last 12 months the
Bulgarian media have provided information on the future greenhouse-gas
emissions reduction targets in detail and relatively frequently in connection
with the specific action expected from Bulgaria in meeting its obligations as
an EU member state. In this connection
Bulgaria is usually presented in the media as a country under pressure from the
European Commission.
For example, in connection with the National Allocation Plan
for 2007 and the period from 2008 to 2012, the media only began to cover the
issue when the EC threatened to impose financial sanctions on Bulgaria due to
its long delay in drafting and submitting the plan, despite the fact that the
NGO sector reacted one whole year earlier with letters to the administration,
to the EC and to the Bulgarian media to draw attention to the shortcomings in
the drafting of the plan. Most of the
popular media support the view of the government and the business sector that
the requirements for Bulgaria to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are excessive
and detrimental to the development of the Bulgarian economy. This was clearly
demonstrated after the EC decision of 26th October 2007 to reduce
overall EU emissions by 10%, which means a 20% reduction for Bulgaria in 2007
and a 37.4% reduction for the period from 2008 to 2012. An extensive media
campaign was organised in Bulgaria against this EC
decision after it was announced. The
campaign was driven mainly by representatives of the government, including the
Minister of the Environment and Waters as well as the Minister of the Economy
and Energy, in concert with representatives of the business sector,
representatives of the Bulgarian Chamber of Trade and of the Confederation of
Employers and Industrialists in Bulgaria, politicians, Members of Parliament,
Bulgarian Members of the European Parliament, and journalists. All of these parties asserted that the
European Commission’s policy on Bulgaria is discriminative, disseminating the
message that this decision was intended to stop the inexorable progress of the
Bulgarian economy, thus to condemn the population to poverty and unemployment. These "arguments” were repeatedly voiced by their
representatives on all media. We
were witness to yet another ostentatious campaign depicting malevolent
Europeans as trying to prevent Bulgaria's development and to condemn Bulgaria
to live in the dark and cold because they dislike Bulgarians and only care for
their own development and welfare.
Thanks in part to our efforts to invite them to our events
and to provide them with information, a small circle of journalists has now
been created from among media specialised in the
economy and a number of radio stations. It is essential for efforts to continue
in Bulgaria to broaden the circle of journalists who are competent on
climate-change issues, paying particular attention to the most popular media
which so far only raise the subject in the event of natural disasters, disputes
with the European Commission, or sanctions imposed on Bulgaria.
Issues of adaptation to climate change are almost unknown in
Bulgarian society and are absent from government programmes
as well as from strategies on climate change. A few representatives of
non-governmental organisations deal with these issues
in their activities. Two newspapers with a profile in economics named "Kapital" and "Dnevnik"
have permanent sections dedicated to climate change; they have journalists
familiar with the topic and a relatively objective view of the issues. These newspapers have small circulation
figures but are read by the most economically active section of the population.
The results of the 4th IPCC report were widely presented in the
media, but there was a lack of in-depth comment and analysis about what the
implications are for Bulgaria.
Policies and
Measures
Public debate on climate change organised
by the government was intended to stimulate opposition to the specific
emissions reduction targets imposed on Bulgaria by the EC. The arguments used by the government were
that Bulgaria is a poor country and should be allowed to continue to rely on
carbon-intensive technologies. The
government's position was to call for a longer period before Bulgarian industry
is compelled to meet European requirements. The Bulgarian government opposes
the use of the year 2005 as the base year for calculation of emission
reductions in the ETS. The argument used
by the government is that Bulgaria has only been an EU member since 2007 and
that in the year 2005, Block № 4 of the Kozloduy
nuclear power plant was working at full capacity (two of these blocks were
decommissioned at the end of 2006).
Another argument was that owing to the extensive flooding in Bulgaria
during 2005, the hydroelectric power plants were able to generate more
electrical energy than usual. The
official position is that Bulgaria will manage to achieve the EC targets.
Non-governmental organisations in Bulgaria support
the ambitious EU targets, but consider that they should go further. We are calling for more radical measures as
recommended in the Stern review. The EU proposal is unlikely to enjoy the mass
support of the media or the public as long as the Bulgarian government presents
it as an obstacle to the country's economic prosperity.
Emission trading system
The government supports the Emissions Trading Scheme and is
generating expectations that considerable profits will ensue from it. There is
currently no information available about anybody in Bulgaria profiting unduly
from emissions trading. This may occur
at a later stage. The government has promised to achieve the greenhouse-gas
emissions reduction target set out in Annex I of the IPCC in the period after
2012. However, it is unlikely that the
target can be reached without fundamental changes in the country’s energy and
economic policies. Changes are required
in the country's strategic documents, for example in the Energy Strategy for
Bulgaria adopted in 2002 concerning development until 2015 and in the Concept
for Bulgaria’s Energy Strategy put forward in 2008, along with the National
Long-Term Program for Encouraging the Use of Renewable Energy Sources. The development of renewable energy sources
is given a very low priority in comparison with the country’s plans to develop
nuclear energy and coal mining. The
Bulgarian public and industry are not prepared for higher energy prices to
support investments in new clean technologies, renewable energy sources and
energy efficiency. Informing the public about reducing greenhouse-gas
emissions, increasing energy savings, and the potential of renewable energy
sources is not a government priority.
The government continues to uphold the mistaken philosophy of continuing
economic growth using fossil fuels and high-carbon technologies. There is little incentive for politicians to
adopt measures reaching further into the future than the end of their own
mandate.
Renewable energy
State policy on renewable energy sources is based on the
Renewable and Alternative Energy Sources and Biofuels
Act (RAESBA), promulgated in the State Gazette (SG) № 49/19.06.2007;
the Energy Act, promulgated in SG № 107/09.12.2003; the Energy
Efficiency Act, promulgated in SG № 18/05.03.2004 and the existing
National Long-Term Program for Encouraging the Use of Renewable Energy Sources
2005-2015. These documents include the following incentives: compulsory
connection of energy from renewable sources to the electricity transmission
network, simplified administrative regulation of renewable-energy generation and
the construction of the necessary installations, and preferential feed-in
tariffs for the purchase of renewable energy over the course of 12 years. The
accelerated connection of renewable energy sources to the electricity
transmission network provides more security and improved opportunities for
cash-flow planning. In fact, these short
time-frames are amongst the most significant features of the RAESBA and, in
combination with the preferential feed-in tariffs, it genuinely puts renewable
energy producers in a more favorable position than the conventional energy
sector.
The draft Energy Efficiency Act was adopted by Parliament on
first reading and sets out a framework for electrical energy consumption to be
reduced by 9% by the year 2016. Loans of up to 10000 Euros, including a 20%
grant from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), are
available under a program of the European Commission, the EBRD and the Energy
Efficiency Agency. Consumers of electricity, heat energy and natural gas may
apply for funding for energy-efficiency projects from the Energy Efficiency
Fund in accordance with Article 31 of the Energy Efficiency Act. Another source
of funding/co-funding for energy-efficiency projects is the International Kozloduy Fund, which has an overall budget of 570 million
Euros until 2009. The EU structural
funds for the period from 2007 to 2013 also include funding for the development
of energy efficiency. According to the analysis drafted for the second national
plan on climate change, structural changes in the economy led to a drastic
reduction in end-user energy consumption by 55% up to 2002, while primary
energy consumption dropped by 45% during the same period. End-use consumption of
energy per unit of GDP during this period dropped by 42% as compared with 28%
for primary energy consumption per unit of GDP. According to the Concept
for the Bulgarian Energy Strategy until 2020, Bulgaria’s economy is 5.6 times
more energy-intensive than those of the rest of the EC 27 countries. Bulgaria's
EU accession treaty contains an obligation for renewable energy to constitute
11% of the overall energy produced in the country. In recent years the proportion of energy
generated from renewable sources in Bulgaria has been between 6% and 8%, mainly
comprising hydroelectric power.
Immediately after the update of the European plan to cope with climate
change by 2020, the Bulgarian Vice-Premier and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivailo Kalfin announced that
Bulgaria can only obtain between 2% and 4% of its energy from renewable sources
and can only achieve 10% by 2020. The EC
target is 16%. The minister maintained that the reason is the high price of
investment in renewable energy.
Bulgaria could be described as the European champion in
terms of the number of government documents dedicated to energy efficiency and
renewable energy sources, but in terms of the reality of energy efficiency in
the European Union, the country is at the bottom of the league. The relevant documents include the National
Short-Term Energy Efficiency Program 2005-2007; the National Long-Term Program
for Encouraging the Use of Renewable Energy Sources 2005-2015; and the National
Long-Term Energy Efficiency Program until 2015. The representatives of NGO
sector believe that renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies are
being established in Bulgaria far too slowly.
They anticipate that this state of affairs will continue, as the energy
lobby and industrialists are highly influential in the government in promoting
the development of fossil fuels.
New power plants
Currently AES is building two new lignite coal-fired power
generation blocks at the Maritza East 1 Thermal Electric Power Station with an
overall capacity of 670 MW (2 x 350 MW) which will use fuel from the Maritza
East coal basin. The investment is
valued at €1.1 billion, with 12% of the investment intended for environmental
protection. A sum of 790 million Euros
has been provided by major international banks including the EBRD. The first block is expected to be put into
operation in June 2009. AES has promised
that its sulphur scrubbers will cut sulphur emissions by over 94%. Clean combustion technology will be used with
a pulverised-fuel system.
New power plants are not currently planned. The main aim is to rehabilitate the existing
ones. Implementation of this aim has
been deliberately delayed in order to promote nuclear energy in Bulgaria as the
only realistic solution. The government of Bulgaria maintains that nuclear
energy should be fundamental to the country's energy policy. With the construction of the new Belene nuclear power plant with two 1000 MW power
generation blocks, the government claims that the country will reduce its
greenhouse-gas emissions and avoid the need to purchase emissions allowances
after 2012, in this way ensuring the country’s energy independence. This,
however, is far from reality, since the reactors, the power-plant fuel, and the
construction contractors all come from Russia.
This fact in itself excludes any possibility of energy
independence. The government has organised a highly compromised tender procedure for the
construction of the Belene nuclear power plant. One of the conditions of the tender was a
requirement to use Russian VVER-1000 reactors. The Bulgarian government has
insisted on this project despite the universal view of economists in Bulgaria
that the project constitutes a major risk and is uneconomic, ignoring as well
the view of scientists from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences that the project
constitutes an environmental hazard.
Funding is still being sought at the moment for this economically
senseless megalomaniacal project, as most major European banks refused to take
part in it despite a state guarantee of €600 million. The price was initially set at €2
billion. The sum currently referred to
is between 4 and 7 billion Euros.
Other information
The Ministry of the Environment and Waters deals with
climate-change issues. The same ministry
cooperates with the Ministry of the Economy and Energy on issues related to
emissions trading.
Sources
of information: